Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks

Changes in Arctic sea ice affect atmospheric circulation, ocean current, and polar ecosystems. There have been unprecedented decreases in the amount of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. In this study, a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model is proposed, with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). This monthly SIC prediction model based on CNNs is shown to perform better predictions (mean absolute error - MAE - of 2.28 %, anomaly correlation coefficient - ACC - of 0.98, root-mean-square error - RMSE - of 5.76 %, normalized RMSE - nRMSE - of 16.15 %, and NSE - Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency - of 0.97) than a random-forest-based (RF-based) model (MAE of 2.45 %, ACC of 0.98, RMSE of 6.61 %, nRMSE of 18.64 %, and NSE of 0.96) and the persistence model based on the monthly trend (MAE of 4.31 %, ACC of 0.95, RMSE of 10.54 %, nRMSE of 29.17 %, and NSE of 0.89) through hindcast validations. The spatio-temporal analysis also confirmed the superiority of the CNN model. The CNN model showed good SIC prediction results in extreme cases that recorded unforeseen sea ice plummets in 2007 and 2012 with RMSEs of less than 5.0 %. This study also examined the importance of the input variables through a sensitivity analysis. In both the CNN and RF models, the variables of past SICs were identified as the most sensitive factor in predicting SICs. For both models, the SIC-related variables generally contributed more to predict SICs over ice-covered areas, while other meteorological and oceanographic variables were more sensitive to the prediction of SICs in marginal ice zones. The proposed 1-month SIC prediction model provides valuable information which can be used in various applications, such as Arctic shipping-route planning, management of the fishing industry, and long-term sea ice forecasting and dynamics

Arctic lead detection using a waveform mixture algorithm from CryoSat-2 data

We propose a waveform mixture algorithm to detect leads from CryoSat-2 data, which is novel and different from the existing threshold-based lead detection methods. The waveform mixture algorithm adopts the concept of spectral mixture analysis, which is widely used in the field of hyperspectral image analysis. This lead detection method was evaluated with high-resolution (250 m) MODIS images and showed comparable and promising performance in detecting leads when compared to the previous methods. The robustness of the proposed approach also lies in the fact that it does not require the rescaling of parameters (i.e., stack standard deviation, stack skewness, stack kurtosis, pulse peakiness, and backscatter sigma(0)), as it directly uses L1B waveform data, unlike the existing threshold-based methods. Monthly lead fraction maps were produced by the waveform mixture algorithm, which shows interannual variability of recent sea ice cover during 2011-2016, excluding the summer season (i.e., June to September). We also compared the lead fraction maps to other lead fraction maps generated from previously published data sets, resulting in similar spatiotemporal patterns

A Granger Causality Measure for Point Process Models of Ensemble Neural Spiking Activity

The ability to identify directional interactions that occur among multiple neurons in the brain is crucial to an understanding of how groups of neurons cooperate in order to generate specific brain functions. However, an optimal method of assessing these interactions has not been established. Granger causality has proven to be an effective method for the analysis of the directional interactions between multiple sets of continuous-valued data, but cannot be applied to neural spike train recordings due to their discrete nature. This paper proposes a point process framework that enables Granger causality to be applied to point process data such as neural spike trains. The proposed framework uses the point process likelihood function to relate a neuron’s spiking probability to possible covariates, such as its own spiking history and the concurrent activity of simultaneously recorded neurons. Granger causality is assessed based on the relative reduction of the point process likelihood of one neuron obtained excluding one of its covariates compared to the likelihood obtained using all of its covariates. The method was tested on simulated data, and then applied to neural activity recorded from the primary motor cortex (MI) of a Felis catus subject. The interactions present in the simulated data were predicted with a high degree of accuracy, and when applied to the real neural data, the proposed method identified causal relationships between many of the recorded neurons. This paper proposes a novel method that successfully applies Granger causality to point process data, and has the potential to provide unique physiological insights when applied to neural spike trains.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant DP1-OD003646)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-EB006385

Large-scale Spatiotemporal Spike Patterning Consistent with Wave Propagation in Motor Cortex

Aggregate signals in cortex are known to be spatiotemporally organized as propagating waves across the cortical surface, but it remains unclear whether the same is true for spiking activity in individual neurons. Furthermore, the functional interactions between cortical neurons are well documented but their spatial arrangement on the cortical surface has been largely ignored. Here we use a functional network analysis to demonstrate that a subset of motor cortical neurons in non-human primates spatially coordinate their spiking activity in a manner that closely matches wave propagation measured in the beta oscillatory band of the local field potential. We also demonstrate that sequential spiking of pairs of neuron contains task-relevant information that peaks when the neurons are spatially oriented along the wave axis. We hypothesize that the spatial anisotropy of spike patterning may reflect the underlying organization of motor cortex and may be a general property shared by other cortical areas

Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Estimation from CryoSat-2 Satellite Data Using Machine Learning-Based Lead Detection

Satellite altimeters have been used to monitor Arctic sea ice thickness since the early 2000s. In order to estimate sea ice thickness from satellite altimeter data, leads (i.e., cracks between ice floes) should first be identified for the calculation of sea ice freeboard. In this study, we proposed novel approaches for lead detection using two machine learning algorithms: decision trees and random forest. CryoSat-2 satellite data collected in March and April of 2011-2014 over the Arctic region were used to extract waveform parameters that show the characteristics of leads, ice floes and ocean, including stack standard deviation, stack skewness, stack kurtosis, pulse peakiness and backscatter sigma-0. The parameters were used to identify leads in the machine learning models. Results show that the proposed approaches, with overall accuracy >90%, produced much better performance than existing lead detection methods based on simple thresholding approaches. Sea ice thickness estimated based on the machine learning-detected leads was compared to the averaged Airborne Electromagnetic (AEM)-bird data collected over two days during the CryoSat Validation experiment (CryoVex) field campaign in April 2011. This comparison showed that the proposed machine learning methods had better performance (up to r = 0.83 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.29 m) compared to thickness estimation based on existing lead detection methods (RMSE = 0.86-0.93 m). Sea ice thickness based on the machine learning approaches showed a consistent decline from 2011-2013 and rebounded in 2014.open0

Synergistic Role of Water and Oxygen Leads to Degradation in Formamidinium-Based Halide Perovskites

Mixed-cation metal halide perovskites have shown remarkable progress in photovoltaic applications with high power conversion efficiencies. However, to achieve large-scale deployment of this technology, efficiencies must be complemented by long-term durability. The latter is limited by external factors, such as exposure to humidity and air, which lead to the rapid degradation of the perovskite materials and devices. In this work, we study the mechanisms causing Cs and formamidinium (FA)-based halide perovskite phase transformations and stabilization during moisture and air exposure. We use in situ X-ray scattering, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and first-principles calculations to study these chemical interactions and their effects on structure. We unravel a surface reaction pathway involving the dissolution of FAI by water and iodide oxidation by oxygen, driving the Cs/FA ratio into thermodynamically unstable regions, leading to undesirable phase transformations. This work demonstrates the interplay of bulk phase transformations with surface chemical reactions, providing a detailed understanding of the degradation mechanism and strategies for designing durable and efficient perovskite materials

A systematic review of progress on hepatocellular carcinoma research over the past 30 years: a machine-learning-based bibliometric analysis

IntroductionResearch on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has grown significantly, and researchers cannot access the vast amount of literature. This study aimed to explore the research progress in studying HCC over the past 30 years using a machine learning-based bibliometric analysis and to suggest future research directions.MethodsComprehensive research was conducted between 1991 and 2020 in the public version of the PubMed database using the MeSH term “hepatocellular carcinoma.” The complete records of the collected results were downloaded in Extensible Markup Language format, and the metadata of each publication, such as the publication year, the type of research, the corresponding author’s country, the title, the abstract, and the MeSH terms, were analyzed. We adopted a latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling method on the Python platform to analyze the research topics of the scientific publications.ResultsIn the last 30 years, there has been significant and constant growth in the annual publications about HCC (annual percentage growth rate: 7.34%). Overall, 62,856 articles related to HCC from the past 30 years were searched and finally included in this study. Among the diagnosis-related terms, “Liver Cirrhosis” was the most studied. However, in the 2010s, “Biomarkers, Tumor” began to outpace “Liver Cirrhosis.” Regarding the treatment-related MeSH terms, “Hepatectomy” was the most studied; however, recent studies related to “Antineoplastic Agents” showed a tendency to supersede hepatectomy. Regarding basic research, the study of “Cell Lines, Tumors,’’ appeared after 2000 and has been the most studied among these terms.ConclusionThis was the first machine learning-based bibliometric study to analyze more than 60,000 publications about HCC over the past 30 years. Despite significant efforts in analyzing the literature on basic research, its connection with the clinical field is still lacking. Therefore, more efforts are needed to convert and apply basic research results to clinical treatment. Additionally, it was found that microRNAs have potential as diagnostic and therapeutic targets for HCC